Search results for "Wind forecasting"

showing 2 items of 2 documents

Wind Speed Forecasting by Box-Jenkins Models

2008

The possibility of modelling observed wind speed time series and forecasting their future values is presented in this paper. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models are applied to time series formed by four years hourly average wind speed measurements in thirty sites of Sicily. Our approach is considerably different from the original one (the Box-Jenkins approach) since it is completely automatic. We use a peculiar feature of wind speed on a land area, its daily period, to identify a class of SARIMA models within which to find the best fitting model by information criteria (here we employ AICC). Here we report the results, concerning the fit and forecast accuracy, …

Wind forecastingSpectral analysiStochastic modelTime serieModel selection
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Stochastic models for wind speed forecasting

2011

Abstract This paper is concerned with the problem of developing a general class of stochastic models for hourly average wind speed time series. The proposed approach has been applied to the time series recorded during 4 years in two sites of Sicily, a region of Italy, and it has attained valuable results in terms both of modelling and forecasting. Moreover, the 24 h predictions obtained employing only 1-month time series are quite similar to those provided by a feed-forward artificial neural network trained on 2 years data.

Class (computer programming)EngineeringSeries (mathematics)Artificial neural networkMeteorologyRenewable Energy Sustainability and the EnvironmentStochastic modellingbusiness.industryModel selectionSettore FIS/01 - Fisica SperimentaleEnergy Engineering and Power TechnologySettore FIS/03 - Fisica Della MateriaSettore FIS/07 - Fisica Applicata(Beni Culturali Ambientali Biol.e Medicin)Wind speedFuel TechnologyNuclear Energy and EngineeringSpectral analysisbusinessstochastic models time series model selection spectral analysis artificial neural networks wind forecastingAlgorithmEnergy Conversion and Management
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